The large market dislocations of 2015 - who said the year was uneventful

The year was filled with surprises and big divergences, but most of them were policy-made and highly unpredictable. This is a small table highlighting some of the ones that we think caught investors napping.


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Three big picture trading themes to watch

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The Great Divergence in monetary policy Perhaps the Great Divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and ECB is not a great as expected given the weaker than expected policy change by the ECB, yet 2016 will continue to be the story between the Fed raising rates and the ECB pushing interest rates further into negative territory. Right before the ECB announcements the interest rate differential between Germany and the US was at the widest level since the introduction of the Euro. Yields in the EU jumped up and the Euro had one of the biggest positive days since its inception on the announcement only to see ECB president Draghi suggest that there is "no limit" to what the ECB will do to help the economy. The high volume of activity coupled with the price moves tells us that that many are trading this differential closely. Some of the most liquid markets in the world may still face cascades when these crowded trades are surprised.  Assume that the Fed raises rates in December,
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Global macro themes for March on one page

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One month makes a big difference. We have gone from a hugely negative equity environment, oil crash fears, a credit downturn, and Fed policy mistakes to strong equites, an oil rally, and less credit risk. The economic environment has not changed radically, but when risk appetite changes the asset markets around the world change.  Can this last? This will be the number one question for March. We think there are still major headwinds to stop a sustained rally, but data change and markets change. Nevertheless, there needs to be confirming economic information to sustain the current rally. 
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Vanessa Angel Dikabarkan Hamil, Sang Ayah Enggan Berkomentar

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See detail Belum lama menikah dengan Febri Ardiansyah, artis Vanessa Angel dikabarkan sudah berbadan dua. Sang ayah, Doddy Sudrajat enggan berkomentar tentang hal tersebut. “Saya nggak mau komentar soal kehamilan. Itu kan masalah pribadi. Tanya saja sama Vanessa secara langsung,” kata Doddy saat ditemui baru-baru ini. Doddy mengaku tidak melihat ada tanda-tanda kehamilan pada Vanessa. Dia juga tidak melihat perubahan pada sang putri. “Pas hari Sabtu (saat Vanessa Angel menikah dengan Bibi, Red) nggak terlihat perut Vanessa besar seperti orang hamil,” akunya. Doddy mengatakan, ia bersedia menikahkan Bibi dengan Vanessa Angel setelah menantunya itu datang secara baik-baik ke rumah. Doddy juga melihat keseriusan Bibi kepada Vanessa. Ketika disinggung soal resepsi pernikahan, Doddy enggan memberikan bocoran. Padahal sebelumnya sempat beredar kabar bahwa Vanessa Angel dan Febri Ardiansyah akan menggelar resepsi pernikahan di Bali akhir bulan ini. “Resepsinya ada, tapi nggak tahu waktu dan t
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