The large market dislocations of 2015 - who said the year was uneventful

The year was filled with surprises and big divergences, but most of them were policy-made and highly unpredictable. This is a small table highlighting some of the ones that we think caught investors napping.


Komentar

Posting Komentar

Postingan populer dari blog ini

The genius of investment management - dealing with information conflicts

Gambar
True genius resides in the capacity for evaluation of uncertain, hazardous, and conflicting information. -Winston Churchill I don't know whether Churchill was a good investor. He always had money problems and was forced to write to pay the bills earlier in his life, but he does seem to understand the essence of what it takes to be a good investment manager.  Perhaps those who find investment management difficult and have failed at different times better  understand the genius of investment management. The genius is learning not to be over-confident about the what can be understood from conflicting information. There is genius with saying you don't know or that you are confused and having the courage to step-away from taking risks. May everyone show genius with the uncertainty of 2016. 
Baca selengkapnya

Managed futures index ends the year flat - between equity and bond returns

Gambar
Effort and results were not linked for managed futures managers in 2015.  For all of the trends, opportunities, and trading, the SOCGEN CTA index ended the year up 10 bps. Going to sleep for the year with money in a mattress would have gotten the same return. Nevertheless, equities as measured by the S&P 500 stock index (SPX) fell less than one percent while bonds as measured by the Barclay Aggregate Index (AGG) gained just less than 50 bps. It was a sideways year in spite of the historic change in Fed behavior,  significant oil shocks, and negative interest rates in the EU. A closer look at the monthly returns show an interesting story for how and when managed futures managers made profits and lost money. Of course, we are generalizing, but we believe a simple comparison with traditional assets can tell an effective story.  Looking at equities, there were two big positive return months, February and October. During these months, managed futures posted loses. The powe...
Baca selengkapnya

Psychometric tests and due diligence

Gambar
The due diligence of hedge money is typically first rate, however the due diligence on supervisor talent is nonetheless primarily concentrated on simply three factors, previous performance, pedigree, and references. Given the tight performance throughout managers, the vast differ of supervisor experiences, and the constrained news from references, investors are nonetheless in search of higher tools of measuring the expertise of portfolio managers. The query is deciding upon the way to get internal the pinnacle of managers and discover out in the event that they have what it takes - skill.  Skill versus luck isn't simple to degree whilst you've got constrained data. In activities activities we are able to comply with much of statistics with giant samples over years. Even in poker, we are able to degree talent over a giant quantity of palms with a controlled environment.  Trading in a unsure environment with incredibly variable guidelines makes for extra tough testing. There has...
Baca selengkapnya