Perils of perception - the reality is that we get a lot wrong



The key issue with any expectations market is that investors are often driven by what is perceived and not what is true. The misperceptions of what we belief to be fact but in reality is false will clearly drive markets. If you don't believe we have perception problems, look at the survey of the Perils of Perceptions from Ipsos Mori, the British research and survey group.


The fourteen country survey asks very simple questions on simple facts that should be easily answered by most individuals. It is not that the questions are always easy, but they do represent facts of what people should know. You can take the test yourself. Generally, the perceptions of individuals around the world show significant differences with reality. If individuals cannot anchor basic facts, then it is likely they will have a problem assessing new information. 

Take, for example, the perception on unemployment. The numbers suggest that most individuals, regardless of country, think unemployment is higher than it actually is. No wonder there is a problem with confidence in the economies around the world. Being blind to reality will mean that assessing new information will not be easy. You cannot effectively change expectations if you don't know the starting point for discussion. Take the survey and check your misperceptions. 

Komentar

Posting Komentar

Postingan populer dari blog ini

Three big picture trading themes to watch

Gambar
The Great Divergence in monetary policy Perhaps the Great Divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and ECB is not a great as expected given the weaker than expected policy change by the ECB, yet 2016 will continue to be the story between the Fed raising rates and the ECB pushing interest rates further into negative territory. Right before the ECB announcements the interest rate differential between Germany and the US was at the widest level since the introduction of the Euro. Yields in the EU jumped up and the Euro had one of the biggest positive days since its inception on the announcement only to see ECB president Draghi suggest that there is "no limit" to what the ECB will do to help the economy. The high volume of activity coupled with the price moves tells us that that many are trading this differential closely. Some of the most liquid markets in the world may still face cascades when these crowded trades are surprised.  Assume that the Fed raises rates in December,
Baca selengkapnya

Global macro themes for March on one page

Gambar
One month makes a big difference. We have gone from a hugely negative equity environment, oil crash fears, a credit downturn, and Fed policy mistakes to strong equites, an oil rally, and less credit risk. The economic environment has not changed radically, but when risk appetite changes the asset markets around the world change.  Can this last? This will be the number one question for March. We think there are still major headwinds to stop a sustained rally, but data change and markets change. Nevertheless, there needs to be confirming economic information to sustain the current rally. 
Baca selengkapnya

Vanessa Angel Dikabarkan Hamil, Sang Ayah Enggan Berkomentar

Gambar
See detail Belum lama menikah dengan Febri Ardiansyah, artis Vanessa Angel dikabarkan sudah berbadan dua. Sang ayah, Doddy Sudrajat enggan berkomentar tentang hal tersebut. “Saya nggak mau komentar soal kehamilan. Itu kan masalah pribadi. Tanya saja sama Vanessa secara langsung,” kata Doddy saat ditemui baru-baru ini. Doddy mengaku tidak melihat ada tanda-tanda kehamilan pada Vanessa. Dia juga tidak melihat perubahan pada sang putri. “Pas hari Sabtu (saat Vanessa Angel menikah dengan Bibi, Red) nggak terlihat perut Vanessa besar seperti orang hamil,” akunya. Doddy mengatakan, ia bersedia menikahkan Bibi dengan Vanessa Angel setelah menantunya itu datang secara baik-baik ke rumah. Doddy juga melihat keseriusan Bibi kepada Vanessa. Ketika disinggung soal resepsi pernikahan, Doddy enggan memberikan bocoran. Padahal sebelumnya sempat beredar kabar bahwa Vanessa Angel dan Febri Ardiansyah akan menggelar resepsi pernikahan di Bali akhir bulan ini. “Resepsinya ada, tapi nggak tahu waktu dan t
Baca selengkapnya