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Managed futures index ends the year flat - between equity and bond returns

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Effort and results were not linked for managed futures managers in 2015.  For all of the trends, opportunities, and trading, the SOCGEN CTA index ended the year up 10 bps. Going to sleep for the year with money in a mattress would have gotten the same return. Nevertheless, equities as measured by the S&P 500 stock index (SPX) fell less than one percent while bonds as measured by the Barclay Aggregate Index (AGG) gained just less than 50 bps. It was a sideways year in spite of the historic change in Fed behavior,  significant oil shocks, and negative interest rates in the EU. A closer look at the monthly returns show an interesting story for how and when managed futures managers made profits and lost money. Of course, we are generalizing, but we believe a simple comparison with traditional assets can tell an effective story.  Looking at equities, there were two big positive return months, February and October. During these months, managed futures posted loses. The powe...
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The genius of investment management - dealing with information conflicts

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True genius resides in the capacity for evaluation of uncertain, hazardous, and conflicting information. -Winston Churchill I don't know whether Churchill was a good investor. He always had money problems and was forced to write to pay the bills earlier in his life, but he does seem to understand the essence of what it takes to be a good investment manager.  Perhaps those who find investment management difficult and have failed at different times better  understand the genius of investment management. The genius is learning not to be over-confident about the what can be understood from conflicting information. There is genius with saying you don't know or that you are confused and having the courage to step-away from taking risks. May everyone show genius with the uncertainty of 2016. 
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BREXIT is the trade of the year

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The BREXIT issue may be the trade of the year. What does that mean and why give it this view?  1. This is a big event - Not only will this have huge impact on Great Britain and its place in the European and world economy, there will have a spill-over effect to the rest of the EU. This is the type of event that will shift rare event expectations and increase tail risks. 2. There is a specific date when uncertainty will be resolved. There is not an issue of when it will occur. We know the vote date. 3. The probability of the vote can be tracked and measured. Handicappers now say there is a 24% chance of an exit. The poll numbers look like it is very close. The risks of a bad outcome after June are still not clear, but the vote can be watched and given precision. 4. The market has already spoken that this is a big deal and talk is generating more interest. The IMF just stated that there will be severe global damage if the Brits leave.  5. Financial institutions will have to squar...
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