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Managed futures index ends the year flat - between equity and bond returns

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Effort and results were not linked for managed futures managers in 2015.  For all of the trends, opportunities, and trading, the SOCGEN CTA index ended the year up 10 bps. Going to sleep for the year with money in a mattress would have gotten the same return. Nevertheless, equities as measured by the S&P 500 stock index (SPX) fell less than one percent while bonds as measured by the Barclay Aggregate Index (AGG) gained just less than 50 bps. It was a sideways year in spite of the historic change in Fed behavior,  significant oil shocks, and negative interest rates in the EU. A closer look at the monthly returns show an interesting story for how and when managed futures managers made profits and lost money. Of course, we are generalizing, but we believe a simple comparison with traditional assets can tell an effective story.  Looking at equities, there were two big positive return months, February and October. During these months, managed futures posted loses. The powe...
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New Zealand dollar is a canary (kiwi) in a coal mine

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New Zealand dollar action is a canary (kiwi) in a coal mine. The central bank lowered rates by 25 bps to 2.25 percent which led to an immediate sharp currency decline. The currency has bumped up against a ceiling over the last few months and is now back in the middle of its range since the fall. Last spring and summer the NZD was declining based on potential Fed action.  As a small open economy that is tied to commodities and Asian trade, the NZD cannot afford to have an appreciating exchange rate. Interest rate action will have an immediate effect on exchange rates. The currency had appreciated about 4% since the central bank's December policy meeting projection.  Lowering rates is just a further sign that open economies have to take action versus the negative rate countries or face declining exports, rising currencies, and slower growth. The negative rate countries like Japan are exporting their deflation problems to the rest of the world. New Zealand just acted in a manner ...
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Natixis survey - what are institutional investors thinking for 2016?

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Many firms are now engaging in surveys to provide insight on the direction of asset allocation choices of large investors.  Natixis Global Asset Management just released their 2016 survey of institutional investors  which provides interesting reading. It tells us that institutions want efficient diversification, different asset class and strategy choices that efficiently use capital.  The top objective for institutions is not about growing or preserving capital but achieving the highest risk adjusted returns. This plays nicely into the higher demand for alternative investments. The one thing that hedge funds do well is more efficiently use capital and this seems to be the desire of investors. Of course the big elephant in the room for any investor is the threat of higher interest rates from a Fed normalization. 2/3rds of institutional investors plan to shorten bond durations as a way to respond to this threat. Unfortunately, lower durations comes at the cost of lower yiel...
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