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The genius of investment management - dealing with information conflicts

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True genius resides in the capacity for evaluation of uncertain, hazardous, and conflicting information. -Winston Churchill I don't know whether Churchill was a good investor. He always had money problems and was forced to write to pay the bills earlier in his life, but he does seem to understand the essence of what it takes to be a good investment manager.  Perhaps those who find investment management difficult and have failed at different times better  understand the genius of investment management. The genius is learning not to be over-confident about the what can be understood from conflicting information. There is genius with saying you don't know or that you are confused and having the courage to step-away from taking risks. May everyone show genius with the uncertainty of 2016. 
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Psychometric tests and due diligence

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The due diligence of hedge money is typically first rate, however the due diligence on supervisor talent is nonetheless primarily concentrated on simply three factors, previous performance, pedigree, and references. Given the tight performance throughout managers, the vast differ of supervisor experiences, and the constrained news from references, investors are nonetheless in search of higher tools of measuring the expertise of portfolio managers. The query is deciding upon the way to get internal the pinnacle of managers and discover out in the event that they have what it takes - skill.  Skill versus luck isn't simple to degree whilst you've got constrained data. In activities activities we are able to comply with much of statistics with giant samples over years. Even in poker, we are able to degree talent over a giant quantity of palms with a controlled environment.  Trading in a unsure environment with incredibly variable guidelines makes for extra tough testing. There has...
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Dump that positive thinking - It hurts you

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Most have been brought up on learning to be upbeat and positive. Think about positive thoughts and fantasize about success.  Monty Python has made fun of positive thinking extremes with their song "Always look on the bright side of life". No matter how bad it gets be positive. The latest research suggests that this way of thinking actually harms you. In the book Rethinking Positive Thinking: Inside the New Science of Motivation by Gabriele Oettingen, we are told that the research calls for balance between positive thinking and the potential negatives. Quit with fantasy thinking and engage in reality which looks at both the good and bad for achieving what you want. Balance leads to more success. The author discusses the four step technique of WOOP for balanced motivation. WOOP stands for Wish, Outcome, Obstacle, and Plan, and is a technique for providing motivation and successful thinking without the potential for extreme thinking. Too much positive thinking and you will have...
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