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New Zealand dollar is a canary (kiwi) in a coal mine

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New Zealand dollar action is a canary (kiwi) in a coal mine. The central bank lowered rates by 25 bps to 2.25 percent which led to an immediate sharp currency decline. The currency has bumped up against a ceiling over the last few months and is now back in the middle of its range since the fall. Last spring and summer the NZD was declining based on potential Fed action.  As a small open economy that is tied to commodities and Asian trade, the NZD cannot afford to have an appreciating exchange rate. Interest rate action will have an immediate effect on exchange rates. The currency had appreciated about 4% since the central bank's December policy meeting projection.  Lowering rates is just a further sign that open economies have to take action versus the negative rate countries or face declining exports, rising currencies, and slower growth. The negative rate countries like Japan are exporting their deflation problems to the rest of the world. New Zealand just acted in a manner ...
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Managed futures index ends the year flat - between equity and bond returns

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Effort and results were not linked for managed futures managers in 2015.  For all of the trends, opportunities, and trading, the SOCGEN CTA index ended the year up 10 bps. Going to sleep for the year with money in a mattress would have gotten the same return. Nevertheless, equities as measured by the S&P 500 stock index (SPX) fell less than one percent while bonds as measured by the Barclay Aggregate Index (AGG) gained just less than 50 bps. It was a sideways year in spite of the historic change in Fed behavior,  significant oil shocks, and negative interest rates in the EU. A closer look at the monthly returns show an interesting story for how and when managed futures managers made profits and lost money. Of course, we are generalizing, but we believe a simple comparison with traditional assets can tell an effective story.  Looking at equities, there were two big positive return months, February and October. During these months, managed futures posted loses. The powe...
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BREXIT is the trade of the year

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The BREXIT issue may be the trade of the year. What does that mean and why give it this view?  1. This is a big event - Not only will this have huge impact on Great Britain and its place in the European and world economy, there will have a spill-over effect to the rest of the EU. This is the type of event that will shift rare event expectations and increase tail risks. 2. There is a specific date when uncertainty will be resolved. There is not an issue of when it will occur. We know the vote date. 3. The probability of the vote can be tracked and measured. Handicappers now say there is a 24% chance of an exit. The poll numbers look like it is very close. The risks of a bad outcome after June are still not clear, but the vote can be watched and given precision. 4. The market has already spoken that this is a big deal and talk is generating more interest. The IMF just stated that there will be severe global damage if the Brits leave.  5. Financial institutions will have to squar...
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